Charting a path for Midwest agriculture through scenario-based foresight

Midwest agriculture will be a globally critical source of food, water, and energy by 2100, particularly under projected climate change. In addition to climate, there are other powerful drivers of change in agriculture, including global changes in diet and health, growing water scarcity, demographic and economic transitions, and a new agricultural bioeconomy of new foods and bioproducts. How can our agriculture respond to this complex mix of problems and opportunities? To answer this question, the University of Minnesota will initiate and facilitate rigorous foresight work that brings University researchers together with leaders in food/agricultural industry, civil society groups, and government. Together, these leaders will identify and deliberate possible, probable, and preferred futures for agriculture, using scenario planning, a tested tool for creative reframing of established narratives. We will use humanities and social-science scholarship to assess metrics of progress toward our goal: a shared, actionable vision for sustainability, equity, and justice in Midwest agriculture.