A Comparison of Bayesian Speed Estimates from Rollover and Critical Speed Methods

Martinez and Schlueter [6] described a three-phase model for reconstructing tripped rollover crashes, where the vehicle's path is divided into pre-trip, trip, and post-trip phases. Brach and Brach [9] also described this model and noted that the trajectory segmentation method for the pre-trip phase needed further validation. When a vehicle leaves a measurable yaw mark at the start of its pre-trip phase it might be possible to compare estimates from the three-phase model to those obtained using the critical speed method, and this paper describes Bayesian reconstruction of two such cases. For the first, the 95 percent confidence interval for the case vehicle's initial speed, estimated using the critical speed method, was (64 mph, 81 mph) while the 95 percent confidence interval via the three-phase model was (66 mph, 79 mph). For the second case an initial inconsistency between the two estimates suggested a modification to the three-phase model, leading to confidence intervals of (72 mph, 91 mph) and (79 mph, 92 mph) for the critical speed method and three-phase model, respectively.