Additive genetic variance for lifetime fitness and the capacity for adaptation in an annual plant

The immediate capacity for adaptation under current environmental conditions is directly proportional to the additive genetic variance for fitness, V_A(W). Mean absolute fitness, (Formula presented.), is predicted to change at the rate (Formula presented.), according to Fisher's Fundamental Theorem of Natural Selection. Despite ample research evaluating degree of local adaptation, direct assessment of V_A(W) and the capacity for ongoing adaptation is exceedingly rare. We estimated V_A(W) and (Formula presented.) in three pedigreed populations of annual Chamaecrista fasciculata, over three years in the wild. Contrasting with common expectations, we found significant V_A(W) in all populations and years, predicting increased mean fitness in subsequent generations (0.83 to 6.12 seeds per individual). Further, we detected two cases predicting “evolutionary rescue,” where selection on standing V_A(W) was expected to increase fitness of declining populations ((Formula presented.) < 1.0) to levels consistent with population sustainability and growth. Within populations, inter-annual differences in genetic expression of fitness were striking. Significant genotype-by-year interactions reflected modest correlations between breeding values across years, indicating temporally variable selection at the genotypic level that could contribute to maintaining V_A(W). By directly estimating V_A(W) and total lifetime (Formula presented.), our study presents an experimental approach for studies of adaptive capacity in the wild.