Abstract
A method for evaluating the reliability of option-based price probability assessments is developed based on the calibration concept. Empirical tests using goodness-of-fit criteria are applied to four agricultural commodities. Results suggest that assessments in the corn and live cattle markets are reliable, but such assessments overstate the volatility of soybean prices and understate the location of hog prices.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 73-83 |
| Number of pages | 11 |
| Journal | American Journal of Agricultural Economics |
| Volume | 72 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Feb 1990 |
Keywords
- Calibration
- Futures
- Goodness-of-fit
- Options
- Probability assessment