Abstract
Objective: To identify clinicopathologic factors associated with 10-year overall survival in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) and primary peritoneal cancer (PPC), and to develop a predictive model identifying long-term survivors. Methods: Demographic, surgical, and clinicopathologic data were abstracted from GOG 182 records. The association between clinical variables and long-term survival (LTS) (> 10 years) was assessed using multivariable regression analysis. Bootstrap methods were used to develop predictive models from known prognostic clinical factors and predictive accuracy was quantified using optimism-adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: The analysis dataset included 3010 evaluable patients, of whom 195 survived greater than ten years. These patients were more likely to have better performance status, endometrioid histology, stage III (rather than stage IV) disease, absence of ascites, less extensive preoperative disease distribution, microscopic disease residual following cyoreduction (R0), and decreased complexity of surgery (p < 0.01). Multivariable regression analysis revealed that lower CA-125 levels, absence of ascites, stage, and R0 were significant independent predictors of LTS. A predictive model created using these variables had an AUC = 0.729, which outperformed any of the individual predictors. Conclusions: The absence of ascites, a low CA-125, stage, and R0 at the time of cytoreduction are factors associated with LTS when controlling for other confounders. An extensively annotated clinicopathologic prediction model for LTS fell short of clinical utility suggesting that prognostic molecular profiles are needed to better predict which patients are likely to be long-term survivors.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 275-280 |
| Number of pages | 6 |
| Journal | Gynecologic oncology |
| Volume | 148 |
| Issue number | 2 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Feb 2018 |
Bibliographical note
Funding Information:This study was supported by National Cancer Institute grants to the gynecologic oncology group (GOG) administrative office (CA 27469), the gynecologic oncology group statistical office (CA 37517), NRG Oncology (1U10 CA180822) and NRG Operations (U10CA180868). The following gynecologic oncology group member institutions participated in the primary treatment studies: University of Alabama at Birmingham, Oregon Health Sciences University, Duke University Medical Center, Abington Memorial Hospital, University of Rochester Medical Center, Walter Reed Army Medical Center, Wayne State University, University of Minnesota Medical School, University of Southern California at Los Angeles, University of Mississippi Medical Center, Colorado Gynecologic Oncology Group P.C., University of California at Los Angeles, University of Washington, University of Pennsylvania Cancer Center, University of Miami School of Medicine, Milton S. Hershey Medical Center, Georgetown University Hospital, University of Cincinnati, University of North Carolina School of Medicine, University of Iowa Hospitals and Clinics, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center at Dallas, Indiana University School of Medicine, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Albany Medical College, University of California Medical Center at Irvine, Tufts-New England Medical Center, Rush-Presbyterian-St. Luke's Medical Center, University of Kentucky, Eastern Virginia Medical School, The Cleveland Clinic Foundation, Johns Hopkins Oncology Center, State University of New York at Stony Brook, Eastern Pennsylvania GYN/ONC Center, P.C., Southwestern Oncology Group, Washington University School of Medicine, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, Columbus Cancer Council, University of Massachusetts Medical School, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Medical University of South Carolina, Women's Cancer Center, University of Oklahoma, University of Virginia Health Sciences Center, University of Chicago, University of Arizona Health Science Center, Tacoma General Hospital, Eastern Collaborative Oncology Group, Thomas Jefferson University Hospital, Case Western Reserve University, and Tampa Bay Cancer Consortium.
Funding Information:
This study was supported by National Cancer Institute grants to the gynecologic oncology group (GOG) administrative office ( CA 27469 ), the gynecologic oncology group statistical office ( CA 37517 ), NRG Oncology ( 1U10 CA180822 ) and NRG Operations ( U10CA180868 ). The following gynecologic oncology group member institutions participated in the primary treatment studies: University of Alabama at Birmingham, Oregon Health Sciences University, Duke University Medical Center, Abington Memorial Hospital, University of Rochester Medical Center, Walter Reed Army Medical Center, Wayne State University, University of Minnesota Medical School, University of Southern California at Los Angeles, University of Mississippi Medical Center, Colorado Gynecologic Oncology Group P.C., University of California at Los Angeles, University of Washington, University of Pennsylvania Cancer Center, University of Miami School of Medicine, Milton S. Hershey Medical Center, Georgetown University Hospital, University of Cincinnati, University of North Carolina School of Medicine, University of Iowa Hospitals and Clinics, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center at Dallas, Indiana University School of Medicine, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Albany Medical College, University of California Medical Center at Irvine, Tufts-New England Medical Center, Rush-Presbyterian-St. Luke's Medical Center, University of Kentucky, Eastern Virginia Medical School, The Cleveland Clinic Foundation, Johns Hopkins Oncology Center, State University of New York at Stony Brook, Eastern Pennsylvania GYN/ONC Center, P.C., Southwestern Oncology Group, Washington University School of Medicine, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, Columbus Cancer Council, University of Massachusetts Medical School, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Medical University of South Carolina, Women's Cancer Center, University of Oklahoma, University of Virginia Health Sciences Center, University of Chicago, University of Arizona Health Science Center, Tacoma General Hospital, Eastern Collaborative Oncology Group, Thomas Jefferson University Hospital, Case Western Reserve University, and Tampa Bay Cancer Consortium.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2017
Keywords
- Long-term survival
- Ovarian cancer
