Abstract
Risk prediction functions for incident coronary heart disease (CHD) were estimated using data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study, a prospective study of CHD in 15,792 persons recruited in 1987-1989 from four U.S. communities, with follow-up through 1998. Predictivity of which individuals had incident CHD was assessed by increase in area under ROC curves resulting from adding nontraditional risk factors and markers of subclinical disease to a basic model containing only traditional risk factors. We also assessed the increase in population attributable risk. The additional factors were body mass index; waist-hip ratio; sport activity index; forced expiratory volume; plasma fibrinogen, factor VIII, von Willebrand factor, and Lp(a); heart rate; Keys score; pack-years smoking; and subclinical disease marker carotid intima-media thickness. These factors substantially improved prediction of future CHD for men, less for women, and also increased attributable risks.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 880-890 |
| Number of pages | 11 |
| Journal | Journal of Clinical Epidemiology |
| Volume | 56 |
| Issue number | 9 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Sep 1 2003 |
Bibliographical note
Funding Information:The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study is carried out as a collaborative study supported by National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute contracts N01-HC-55015, N01-HC-55016, N01-HC-55018, N01-HC-55019, N01-HC-55020, N01-HC-55021, and N01-HC-55022. The authors thank the staff and participants of the ARIC study for their efforts, and thank Ernestine Bland for her word processing, Adam Gilbert for assistance in analysis, and Ding-yi Zhao and Yue Shen for their programming.
Keywords
- Coronary heart disease
- Population attributable risk
- Prediction
- ROC curves
- Risk factors
- Subclinical disease
