Development and validation of a scoring system for predicting periprocedural complications during percutaneous coronary interventions of chronic total occlusions: The prospective global registry for the study of chronic total occlusion intervention (progress cto) complications score

Barbara Anna Danek, Aris Karatasakis, Dimitri Karmpaliotis, Khaldoon Alaswad, Robert W. Yeh, Farouc A. Jaffer, Mitul P. Patel, Ehtisham Mahmud, William L. Lombardi, Michael R. Wyman, J. Aaron Grantham, Anthony Doing, David E. Kandzari, Nicholas J. Lembo, Santiago Garcia, Catalin Toma, Jeffrey W. Moses, Ajay J. Kirtane, Manish A. Parikh, Ziad A. AliJudit Karacsonyi, Bavana V. Rangan, Craig A. Thompson, Subhash Banerjee, Emmanouil S. Brilakis

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

53 Scopus citations

Abstract

Background--High success rates are achievable for chronic total occlusion (CTO) percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) using the hybrid approach, but periprocedural complications remain of concern. Although scores estimating success and efficiency in CTO PCI have been developed, there is currently no available score for estimation of the risk for periprocedural complications. We sought to develop a scoring tool for prediction of periprocedural complications during CTO PCI. Methods and Results--We analyzed data from 1569 CTO PCIs in the Prospective Global Registry for the Study of Chronic Total Occlusion Intervention (PROGRESS CTO) using a derivation and validation sampling ratio of 2:1. Variables independently associated with periprocedural complications in multivariable analysis in the derivation set were assigned points based on their respective odds ratios. Forty-four (2.8%) patients experienced complications. Three factors were independent predictors of complications and were included in the score: patient age > 65 years, +3 points (odds ratio, OR=4.85, CI 1.82-16.77); lesion length ≥23 mm, +2 points (OR=3.22, CI 1.08-13.89); and use of the retrograde approach +1 point (OR=2.41, CI 1.04-6.05). The resulting score showed good calibration and discriminatory capacity in the derivation (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2 6.271, P=0.281, receiver-operating characteristic [ROC] area=0.758) and validation (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2 4.551, P=0.473, ROC area=0.793) sets. Score values of 0 to 2, 3 to 4, and ≥5 were defined as low, intermediate, and high risk of complications (derivation cohort 0.4%, 1.8%, 6.5%, P < 0.001; validation cohort 0.0%, 2.5%, 6.8%, P < 0.001). Conclusions--The PROGRESS CTO complication score is a useful tool for prediction of periprocedural complications in CTO PCI.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numbere004272
JournalJournal of the American Heart Association
Volume5
Issue number10
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 1 2016

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
Study data were collected and managed using REDCap electronic data capture tools hosted at University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center. REDCap (Research Electronic Data Capture) is a secure, web-based application designed to support data capture for research studies, providing (1) an intuitive interface for validated data entry; (2) audit trails for tracking data manipulation and export procedures; (3) automated export procedures for seamless data downloads to common statistical packages; and (4) procedures for importing data from external sources.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2016 The Authors.

Keywords

  • Chronic total occlusion
  • Complication
  • Outcome
  • Percutaneous coronary intervention
  • Risk stratification

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