Abstract
Objective: To determine the predictive value of discharge destination as a surrogate for defining unfavorable outcome at 3- and 12-months poststroke. Design: Analysis of the prospectively collected data from a randomized, placebo-controlled trial in patients with ischemic stroke presenting within 3 hours of symptom onset. Setting: Post hoc analysis of patients recruited in a clinical trial. Participants: Patients (N=530) discharged alive from the hospital after ischemic stroke. Interventions: Not applicable. Main Outcome Measures: Positive and negative predictive value and likelihood ratios of discharge destination for unfavorable outcome at 3- and 12-months poststroke defined by a Modified Rankin Scale (MRS) score of 2 to 6, 3 to 6, or 4 to 6. A likelihood ratio indicates how many times more (or less) likely a particular discharge destination is seen in patients with an unfavorable outcome compared with those without unfavorable outcome. Results: The positive predictive value of nursing home and rehabilitation facility discharges was highest for unfavorable outcome defined by an MRS score of 2 to 6 (95%) and rehabilitation facility (89%) at 3-months poststroke, respectively. The positive predictive value of rehabilitation facility/nursing home (90%) was also highest for unfavorable outcomes defined by an MRS score of 2 to 6 compared with those defined by MRS scores of 3 to 6 (79%) and 4 to 6 (57%). The positive likelihood ratio was highest for nursing home discharges (13; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1-41) followed by rehabilitation facility discharges for unfavorable outcome defined by an MRS score of 2 to 6 at 3-months poststroke (5.3; 95% CI, 3.5-7.9). The negative likelihood ratio was the highest for home discharge for unfavorable outcome defined by an MRS score of 2 to 6 (4.5; 95% CI, 3.4-6.1). A similar pattern was observed with unfavorable outcome defined using various thresholds at 12 months. Conclusions: Discharge destination can provide high predictive values and likelihood ratios for death and disability at 3-months poststroke, as defined by an MRS of score of 2 to 6.
Original language | English (US) |
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Pages (from-to) | 1408-1413.e1 |
Journal | Archives of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation |
Volume | 93 |
Issue number | 8 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - Aug 2012 |
Bibliographical note
Funding Information:Supported by the National Institutes of Health (grant no. RO-1-NS44976-01A2 , 1U01NS062091-01A2 , and 5K12-RR023247-05 ), ESP Pharma Inc., an American Heart Association Established Investigator Award (award no. 0840053N), and the Minnesota Medical Foundation, Minneapolis, MN.
Keywords
- Nursing homes
- Patient discharge
- Rehabilitation
- Stroke