Disease dynamics and economic growth

Terry L. Roe, Rodney B.W. Smith

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

5 Scopus citations


HIV prevalence dynamics are introduced into a three sector, neoclassical growth model. The model is calibrated to South African national accounts data and used to examine the potential impact of HIV/AIDS on economic growth. Projections portend that, if left unchecked, the long run impact of HIV/AIDS could cause South African GDP to be about 60% less than would be the level of GDP in the absence of the disease. In spite of a relatively high death rate, the disease is also found to decrease the per capita level of GDP, due mostly to a decline in labor productivity and a corresponding slower growth in capital deepening.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)145-168
Number of pages24
JournalJournal of Policy Modeling
Issue number1
StatePublished - Jan 2008

Bibliographical note

Copyright 2007 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.


  • Dynamic
  • GDP
  • General-equilibrium
  • Growth
  • HIV
  • Sub-SaharanAfrica

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