TY - JOUR
T1 - Does Reassessment Improve Prediction? A Prospective Study of the Sexual Offender Treatment Intervention and Progress Scale (SOTIPS)
AU - Hanson, R. Karl
AU - Newstrom, Nicholas
AU - Brouillette-Alarie, Sébastien
AU - Thornton, David
AU - Robinson, Beatrice “Bean” E.
AU - Miner, Michael H.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2020.
PY - 2021/12
Y1 - 2021/12
N2 - This prospective study examined the predictive validity of the Sex Offender Treatment Intervention and Progress Scale (SOTIPS; McGrath et al., 2012), a sexual recidivism risk/need tool designed to identify dynamic (changeable) risk factors relevant to supervision and treatment. The SOTIPS risk tool was scored by probation officers at two sites (n = 565) for three time points: near the start of community supervision, at 6 months, and then at 12 months. Given that conventions for analyzing dynamic prediction studies have yet to be established, one of the goals of the current paper was to demonstrate promising statistical approaches for the analysis of longitudinal studies in corrections. In most analyses, static SOTIPS scores predicted all types of recidivism (sexual, violent, and general [any]). Dynamic SOTIPS scores, however, only improved the prediction of general recidivism, and only when the analyses with the greatest statistical power were used (Cox regression with time dependent covariates).
AB - This prospective study examined the predictive validity of the Sex Offender Treatment Intervention and Progress Scale (SOTIPS; McGrath et al., 2012), a sexual recidivism risk/need tool designed to identify dynamic (changeable) risk factors relevant to supervision and treatment. The SOTIPS risk tool was scored by probation officers at two sites (n = 565) for three time points: near the start of community supervision, at 6 months, and then at 12 months. Given that conventions for analyzing dynamic prediction studies have yet to be established, one of the goals of the current paper was to demonstrate promising statistical approaches for the analysis of longitudinal studies in corrections. In most analyses, static SOTIPS scores predicted all types of recidivism (sexual, violent, and general [any]). Dynamic SOTIPS scores, however, only improved the prediction of general recidivism, and only when the analyses with the greatest statistical power were used (Cox regression with time dependent covariates).
KW - SOTIPS
KW - community supervision
KW - criminogenic needs
KW - dynamic prediction
KW - sexual recidivism
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85097161765&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85097161765&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1177/0306624X20978204
DO - 10.1177/0306624X20978204
M3 - Article
C2 - 33272067
AN - SCOPUS:85097161765
SN - 0306-624X
VL - 65
SP - 1775
EP - 1803
JO - International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology
JF - International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology
IS - 16
ER -