This prospective study examined the predictive validity of the Sex Offender Treatment Intervention and Progress Scale (SOTIPS; McGrath et al., 2012), a sexual recidivism risk/need tool designed to identify dynamic (changeable) risk factors relevant to supervision and treatment. The SOTIPS risk tool was scored by probation officers at two sites (n = 565) for three time points: near the start of community supervision, at 6 months, and then at 12 months. Given that conventions for analyzing dynamic prediction studies have yet to be established, one of the goals of the current paper was to demonstrate promising statistical approaches for the analysis of longitudinal studies in corrections. In most analyses, static SOTIPS scores predicted all types of recidivism (sexual, violent, and general [any]). Dynamic SOTIPS scores, however, only improved the prediction of general recidivism, and only when the analyses with the greatest statistical power were used (Cox regression with time dependent covariates).
|Original language||English (US)|
|Journal||International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology|
|State||Accepted/In press - 2020|
Bibliographical noteFunding Information:
The author(s) disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, or publication of this article: This project was supported by Award No. 2012-AW-BX-0153, awarded by the National Institute of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, U.S. Department of Justice. The opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of Justice. Reoffense data for the New York City cohort was provided by the New York State Division of Criminal Justice Services, Office of Justice Research and Performance (DCJS). The opinions, findings, and conclusions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and not those of DCJC. Neither New York State nor DCJS assumes liability for its contents or use thereof.
© The Author(s) 2020.
- community supervision
- criminogenic needs
- dynamic prediction
- sexual recidivism