E-cigarette use as a predictor of cigarette smoking: Results from a 1-year follow-up of a national sample of 12th grade students

Richard Miech, Megan E. Patrick, Patrick M. O'Malley, Lloyd D. Johnston

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    94 Scopus citations

    Abstract

    Objective To prospectively examine vaping as a predictor of future cigarette smoking among youth with and without previous cigarette smoking experience. A secondary aim is to investigate whether vaping may desensitise youth to the dangers of smoking. Methods Analysis of prospective longitudinal panel data from the nationally representative Monitoring the Future study. The analysis is based on 347 12th grade students who were part of a randomly selected subsample that completed in-school surveys in 2014 and were resurveyed 1-year later. Results Among youth who had never smoked a cigarette by 12th grade, baseline, recent vapers were more than 4 times (relative risk (RR)=4.78) more likely to report past-year cigarette smoking at follow-up, even among youth who reported the highest possible level of perceived risk for cigarette smoking at baseline. Among 12th grade students who had smoked in the past but had not recently smoked at baseline, recent vapers were twice (RR=2.15) as likely to report smoking in the past 12a ...months at the follow-up. Vaping did not predict cessation of smoking among recent smokers at baseline. Among never-smokers at baseline, recent vapers were more than 4 times (RR=4.73) more likely to move away from the perception of cigarettes as posing a a great risk' of harm, a finding consistent with a desensitisation process. Conclusions These results contribute to the growing body of evidence supporting vaping as a one-way bridge to cigarette smoking among youth. Vaping as a risk factor for future smoking is a strong, scientifically-based rationale for restricting youth access to e-cigarettes.

    Original languageEnglish (US)
    Pages (from-to)E106-E111
    JournalTobacco control
    Volume26
    Issue numbere2
    DOIs
    StatePublished - 2017

    Bibliographical note

    Funding Information:
    Funding This study was supported by the National Institute on Drug Abuse, part of the National Institutes of Health, by grants numbers R01DA001411 and R01DA016575.

    Keywords

    • Electronic nicotine delivery devices
    • Harm Reduction
    • Priority/special populations

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