Abstract
The export-led growth hypothesis is examined for five East African Community trade bloc countries using panel co-integration methods. Results indicate that exports have a positive and significant effect on exports-adjusted GDP in the long- and short-run horizons. In addition, an increase in terms of trade volatility has a negative and significant impact on GDP. The bulk of exports are primary commodities which are vulnerable to high terms of trade volatility. This increases the probability of reversing the gains from export-led growth. These countries should emphasize policies that lead to an increase in the share of value-added commodities in total exports.
Original language | English (US) |
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Title of host publication | Agriculture and Trade |
Subtitle of host publication | International Perspectives |
Publisher | Nova Science Publishers, Inc. |
Pages | 165-181 |
Number of pages | 17 |
ISBN (Electronic) | 9781629489858 |
ISBN (Print) | 9781629489759 |
State | Published - Jan 1 2014 |
Bibliographical note
Publisher Copyright:© 2014 by Nova Science Publishers, Inc. All rights reserved.
Keywords
- East Africa
- Export-led growth
- Terms of trade volatility
- Trade