Frequentist analysis of the parameter space of minimal supergravity

We make a frequentist analysis of the parameterspace of minimal supergravity (mSUGRA), in which, aswell as the gaugino and scalar soft supersymmetry-breakingparameters being universal, there is a specific relation betweenthe trilinear, bilinear and scalar supersymmetrybreakingparameters, A0 = B0 +m0, and the gravitino massis fixed by m3/2 = m0. We also consider a more generalmodel, in which the gravitino mass constraint is relaxed (theVCMSSM). We combine in the global likelihood functionthe experimental constraints from low-energy electroweakprecision data, the anomalous magnetic moment of themuon, the lightest Higgs boson mass Mh, B physics andthe astrophysical cold dark matter density, assuming that thelightest supersymmetric particle (LSP)  is a neutralino. In theVCMSSM, we find a preference for values of m1/2 and m0similar to those found previously in frequentist analyses ofthe constrained MSSM (CMSSM) and a model with commonnon-universal Higgs masses (NUHM1). On the otherhand, in mSUGRA we find two preferred regions: one withlarger values of both m1/2 and m0 than in the VCMSSM, andone with large m0 but small m1/2.We compare the probabilitiesof the frequentist fits in mSUGRA, the VCMSSM, theCMSSM and the NUHM1: the probability that mSUGRAis consistent with the present data is significantly less thanin the other models. We also discuss the mSUGRA andVCMSSM predictions for sparticle masses and other observables,identifying potential signatures at the LHC andelsewhere.