Historical time to disease progression and progression-free survival in patients with recurrent/refractory neuroblastoma treated in the modern era on Children's Oncology Group early-phase trials

BACKGROUND: Early-phase trials in patients with recurrent neuroblastoma historically used an objective “response” of measureable disease (Response Evaluation Criteria In Solid Tumors [RECIST], without bone/bone marrow assessment) to select agents for further study. Historical cohorts may be small and potentially biased; to the authors' knowledge, disease recurrence studies from international registries are outdated. Using a large recent cohort of patients with recurrent/refractory neuroblastoma from Children's Oncology Group (COG) modern-era early-phase trials, the authors determined outcome and quantified parameters for designing future studies. METHODS: The first early-phase COG trial enrollment (sequential) of 383 distinct patients with recurrent/refractory neuroblastoma on 23 phase 1, 3 phase 1/2, and 9 phase 2 trials (August 2002 to January 2014) was analyzed for progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and time to disease progression (TTP). Planned frontline therapy for patients with high-risk neuroblastoma included hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (approximately two-thirds of patients underwent ≥1 hematopoietic stem cell transplantation); 13.2% of patients received dinutuximab. RESULTS: From the time of the patient's first early-phase trial enrollment (383 patients), the 1-year and 4-year PFS rates (± standard error) were 21% ± 2% and 6% ± 1%, respectively, whereas the 1-year and 4-year OS rates were 57% ± 3% and 20% ± 2%, respectively. The median TTP was 58 days (interquartile range, 31-183 days [350 patients]); the median follow-up was 25.3 months (33 patients were found to be without disease recurrence/progression). The median time from diagnosis to first disease recurrence/progression was 18.7 months (range, 1.4-64.8 months) (176 patients). MYCN amplification and 11q loss of heterozygosity were prognostic of worse PFS and OS (P =.003 and P<.0001, respectively, and P =.02 and P =.03, respectively) after early-phase trial enrollment. CONCLUSIONS: This recent COG cohort of patients with recurrent/refractory neuroblastoma is inclusive and representative. To the authors' knowledge, the current study is the first meta-analysis of PFS, TTP, and OS within the context of modern therapy. These results will inform the design of future phase 2 studies by providing a) historical context during the search for more effective agents; and, b) factors prognostic of PFS and OS after disease recurrence to stratify randomization. Cancer 2017;123:4914-23.