Independent external validation of nomograms for predicting risk of low-trauma fracture and hip fracture

Lisa Langsetmo, Tuan V. Nguyen, Nguyen D. Nguyen, Christopher S. Kovacs, Jerilynn C. Prior, Jacqueline R. Center, Suzanne Morin, Robert G. Josse, Jonathan D. Adachi, David A. Hanley, John A. Eisman, David Goltzman, Nancy Kreiger, Alan Tenenhouse, Suzette Poliquin, Suzanne Godmaire, Claudie Berger, Carol Joyce, Emma Sheppard, Susan KirklandStephanie Kaiser, Barbara Stanfield, Jacques P. Brown, Louis Bessette, Marc Gendreau, Tassos Anastassiades, Tanveer Towheed, Barbara Matthews, Bob Josse, Sophie A. Jamal, Tim Murray, Barbara Gardner-Bray, Alexandra Papaioannou, Laura Pickard, Wojciech P. Olszynski, K. Shawn Davison, Jola Thingvold, Jane Allan, Millan Patel, Yvette Vigna, Brian C. Lentle

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

38 Scopus citations

Abstract

Background: A set of nomograms based on the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study predicts the five- and ten-year absolute risk of fracture using age, bone mineral density and history of falls and low-trauma fracture. We assessed the discrimination and calibration of these nomograms among participants in the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study. Methods: We included participants aged 55-95 years for whom bone mineral density measurement data and at least one year of follow-up data were available. Self-reported incident fractures were identified by yearly postal questionnaire or interview (years 3, 5 and 10). We included low-trauma fractures before year 10, except those of the skull, face, hands, ankles and feet. We used a Cox proportional hazards model. Results: Among 4152 women, there were 583 fractures, with a mean follow-up time of 8.6 years. Among 1606 men, there were 116 fractures, with a mean follow-up time of 8.3 years. Increasing age, lower bone mineral density, prior fracture and prior falls were associated with increased risk of fracture. For low-trauma fractures, the concordance between predicted risk and fracture events (Harrell C) was 0.69 among women and 0.70 among men. For hip fractures, the concordance was 0.80 among women and 0.85 among men. The observed fracture risk was similar to the predicted risk in all quintiles of risk except the highest quintile of women, where it was lower. The net reclassification index (19.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 6.3% to 32.2%), favours the Dubbo nomogram over the current Canadian guidelines for men. Interpretation: The published nomograms provide good fracture-risk discrimination in a representative sample of the Canadian population.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)E107-E114
JournalCMAJ
Volume183
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 8 2011

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