Looking forward in records of young adults convicted of sexual homicide, rape, or molestation as youth: Risks for reoffending

To assess the risks predicting reoffense, 223 Rapists (M age = 14.2 yr., SD=1.5; 25 girls, 198 boys) were matched with 223 Nonviolent Delinquents; risks were analyzed using logistic regression. The one predictor was prior court contacts (OR=1.55e+12; AUC=.99, 95% CI=. 98-.99). 223 Molesters were similarly matched with 223 Nonviolent Delinquents; this comparison yielded three predictors: previous court contacts (OR = 4.55e+23), poorer executive function (OR = 2.01), and lower social maturity {OR=.97; AUC= .98, 95 %CI = .97-.99). Records for all cases (now M age = 24.2 yr., SD= 1.4) were reviewed forward 10 years and youth were classified into groups: Sexual Homicidal (1%, n = 7), Delinquent Rapists Later Adult Rapists (11%, n = 73), Delinquent Rapists (21%, n = 144), Delinquent Molesters Later Adult Molesters (10%, n = 69), Delinquent Molesters (23%, n = 153), Nonviolent Delinquent Later Nonviolent Adult Criminals (7%, n = 45), and Nonviolent Delinquents (27%, n = 178). Comparison of Sexual Homicidal cases (n = 7) with their matched Controls (n = 7) yielded one predictor, poorer executive function (AUC=.89, 95 % CI = .71-.93). When Sexual Homicidal cases were matched with Nonviolent Delinquents, predictors were low social maturity and prior court contacts (AUC=.81, 95%CI=.64-.93).