Mapping human pressures on biodiversity across the planet uncovers anthropogenic threat complexes

Diana E. Bowler, Anne D. Bjorkman, Maria Dornelas, Isla H. Myers-Smith, Laetitia M. Navarro, Aidin Niamir, Sarah R. Supp, Conor Waldock, Marten Winter, Mark Vellend, Shane A. Blowes, Katrin Böhning-Gaese, Helge Bruelheide, Robin Elahi, Laura H. Antão, Jes Hines, Forest Isbell, Holly P. Jones, Anne E. Magurran, Juliano Sarmento CabralAmanda E. Bates

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Climate change and other anthropogenic drivers of biodiversity change are unequally distributed across the world. Overlap in the distributions of different drivers have important implications for biodiversity change attribution and the potential for interactive effects. However, the spatial relationships among different drivers and whether they differ between the terrestrial and marine realm has yet to be examined. We compiled global gridded datasets on climate change, land-use, resource exploitation, pollution, alien species potential and human population density. We used multivariate statistics to examine the spatial relationships among the drivers and to characterize the typical combinations of drivers experienced by different regions of the world. We found stronger positive correlations among drivers in the terrestrial than in the marine realm, leading to areas with high intensities of multiple drivers on land. Climate change tended to be negatively correlated with other drivers in the terrestrial realm (e.g. in the tundra and boreal forest with high climate change but low human use and pollution), whereas the opposite was true in the marine realm (e.g. in the Indo-Pacific with high climate change and high fishing). We show that different regions of the world can be defined by Anthropogenic Threat Complexes (ATCs), distinguished by different sets of drivers with varying intensities. We identify 11 ATCs that can be used to test hypotheses about patterns of biodiversity and ecosystem change, especially about the joint effects of multiple drivers. Our global analysis highlights the broad conservation priorities needed to mitigate the impacts of anthropogenic change, with different priorities emerging on land and in the ocean, and in different parts of the world.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)380-394
Number of pages15
JournalPeople and Nature
Volume2
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 2020

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This paper arose from discussions at the sChange Workshop (www.idiv.de/schange), which was supported by sDiv, the Synthesis Centre of iDiv, the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research Halle-Jena-Leipzig. We thank all other participants of this workshop for the stimulating discussion and compilation of data that directly fed into this project. We thank the Associate Editor, Julian Gutt and two anonymous reviewers for comments on the manuscript. We also thank Suzanne Fritz, Mary O'Connor, Bob O'Hara and Gergana Dasklova for comments on a previous version of the manuscript. D.B., J.S.C., J.H., S.A.B. and M.W. were funded by the German Research Foundation (D.B.: Grant no. BO 1221/23-1; J.S.C., J.H., L.M.N., S.A.B. & M.W.: via iDiv: FZT 118). S.R.S. was funded by the National Science Foundation, USA (NSF 1400911). L.H.A. was supported by Funda??o para a Ci?ncia e Tecnologia, Portugal (POPH/FSE SFRH/BD/90469/2012) and by the Jane and Aatos Erkko Foundation. A.D.B. was supported by the Danish Council for Independent Research?Natural Sciences (DFF 4181-00565). M.D. was funded by the Scottish Funding Council (MASTS, grant reference HR09011) and M.D. & A.E.M. by the ERC project BioTIME (250189) and BioCHANGE (727440). C.W. was supported by the Natural Environmental Research Council (grant number NE/L002531/).

Funding Information:
This paper arose from discussions at the sChange Workshop ( www.idiv.de/schange ), which was supported by sDiv, the Synthesis Centre of iDiv, the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research Halle‐Jena‐Leipzig. We thank all other participants of this workshop for the stimulating discussion and compilation of data that directly fed into this project. We thank the Associate Editor, Julian Gutt and two anonymous reviewers for comments on the manuscript. We also thank Suzanne Fritz, Mary O'Connor, Bob O'Hara and Gergana Dasklova for comments on a previous version of the manuscript. D.B., J.S.C., J.H., S.A.B. and M.W. were funded by the German Research Foundation (D.B.: Grant no. BO 1221/23‐1; J.S.C., J.H., L.M.N., S.A.B. & M.W.: via iDiv: FZT 118). S.R.S. was funded by the National Science Foundation, USA (NSF 1400911). L.H.A. was supported by Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia, Portugal (POPH/FSE SFRH/BD/90469/2012) and by the Jane and Aatos Erkko Foundation. A.D.B. was supported by the Danish Council for Independent Research—Natural Sciences (DFF 4181‐00565). M.D. was funded by the Scottish Funding Council (MASTS, grant reference HR09011) and M.D. & A.E.M. by the ERC project BioTIME (250189) and BioCHANGE (727440). C.W. was supported by the Natural Environmental Research Council (grant number NE/L002531/).

Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 The Authors. People and Nature published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society

Keywords

  • Anthropocene
  • biodiversity threats
  • direct drivers
  • global change

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