Observations and numerical modeling of debris flows in the Na Kika Basin, Gulf of Mexico

The Na Kika Basin in the eastern Gulf of Mexico experienced debris-flow events in geologically recent times (Late Pleistocene to Recent). To assess the potential risk of such debris-flows to the pipelines and structures associated with the Na Kika field development we performed a semi-quantitative risk assessment of the potential impact of debris-flows to the proposed pipeline network. The numerical model BING was used in conjunction with available sediment core information, seismic, and bathymetric data to model a number of sediment failure scenarios. Calibration of the model was done using data from two existing debris flow deposits. After calibration the model was used to simulate specific scenarios, using bathymetric profiles extending from potential source failure areas to proposed pipeline locations. We found that flows with sufficient volumes to impact the proposed engineering structures are generally inconsistent with observed geologic conditions in the area.