On the need for a new approach to analyzing monetary policy

Andrew Atkeson, Patrick J. Kehoe

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

12 Scopus citations

Abstract

We present a pricing kernel that summarizes well the main features of the dynamics of interest rates and risk in postwar U.S. data and use it to uncover how the pricing kernel has moved with the short rate in this data. Our findings imply that standard monetary models miss an essential link between the central bank instrument and the economic activity that monetary policy is intended to affect, and thus we call for a new approach to monetary policy analysis. We sketch a new approach using an economic model based on our pricing kernel. The model incorporates the key relationships between policy and risk movements in an unconventional way: the central bank's policy changes are viewed as primarily intended to compensate for exogenous business cycle fluctuations in risk that threaten to push inflation off target. This model, while an improvement on standard models, is considered just a starting point for their revision. It leads to critical questions that researchers need to answer as they continue to revise their approach to monetary policy analysis.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)389-425
Number of pages37
JournalNBER Macroeconomics Annual
Volume23
DOIs
StatePublished - 2008

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