Phenology models using herbarium specimens are only slightly improved by using finer-scale stages of reproduction

Elizabeth R. Ellwood, Richard B. Primack, Charles G. Willis, Janneke HilleRisLambers

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

6 Scopus citations

Abstract

Premise of the Study: Herbarium specimens are increasingly used to study reproductive phenology. Here, we ask whether classifying reproduction into progressively finer-scale stages improves our understanding of the relationship between climate and reproductive phenology. Methods: We evaluated Acer rubrum herbarium specimens across eastern North America, classifying them into eight reproductive phenophases and four stages of leaf development. We fit models with different reproductive phenology categorization schemes (from detailed to broad) and compared model fits and coefficients describing temperature, elevation, and year effects. We fit similar models to leaf phenology data to compare reproductive to leafing phenology. Results: Finer-scale reproductive phenophases improved model fits and provided more precise estimates of reproductive phenology. However, models with fewer reproductive phenophases led to similar qualitative conclusions, demonstrating that A. rubrum reproduces earlier in warmer locations, lower elevations, and in recent years, as well as that leafing phenology is less strongly influenced by temperature than is reproductive phenology. Discussion: Our study suggests that detailed information on reproductive phenology provides a fuller understanding of potential climate change effects on flowering, fruiting, and leaf-out. However, classification schemes with fewer reproductive phenophases provided many similar insights and may be preferable in cases where resources are limited.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numbere01225
JournalApplications in Plant Sciences
Volume7
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 2019

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The work presented here would not be possible without the collectors who gathered specimens and the herbarium staff who provided access to herbarium specimens; the authors extend sincere thanks to all who helped in this capacity. The authors thank Amanda Gorton, Anne Pringle, Lillis Weeks, and Maggie Whitson who helped classify herbarium specimens; and Amanda Gallinat, Abe J. Miller-Rushing, and two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments on the manuscript. R.B.P. and E.R.E. acknowledge support from the ADBC program of the U.S. National Science Foundation (award?1208989). J.H.R.L. received support from a Sigma Xi Sally Hughes-Schrader Travel Grant.

Funding Information:
The work presented here would not be possible without the collectors who gathered specimens and the herbarium staff who provided access to herbarium specimens; the authors extend sincere thanks to all who helped in this capacity. The authors thank Amanda Gorton, Anne Pringle, Lillis Weeks, and Maggie Whitson who helped classify herbarium specimens; and Amanda Gallinat, Abe J. Miller-Rushing, and two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments on the manuscript. R.B.P. and E.R.E. acknowledge support from the ADBC program of the U.S. National Science Foundation (award 1208989). J.H.R.L. received support from a Sigma Xi Sally Hughes-Schrader Travel Grant.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2019 Ellwood et al. Applications in Plant Sciences is published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the Botanical Society of America

Keywords

  • Acer rubrum
  • climate
  • herbarium specimens
  • phenology
  • red maple

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