Player performance prediction in massively multiplayer online role-playing games (MMORPGs)

Kyong Jin Shim, Richa Sharan, Jaideep Srivastava

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

10 Scopus citations

Abstract

In this study, we propose a comprehensive performance management tool for measuring and reporting operational activities of game players. This study uses performance data of game players in EverQuest II, a popular MMORPG developed by Sony Online Entertainment, to build performance prediction models for game players. The prediction models provide a projection of player's future performance based on his past performance, which is expected to be a useful addition to existing player performance monitoring tools. First, we show that variations of PECOTA [2] and MARCEL [3], two most popular baseball home run prediction methods, can be used for game player performance prediction. Second, we evaluate the effects of varying lengths of past performance and show that past performance can be a good predictor of future performance up to a certain degree. Third, we show that game players do not regress towards the mean and that prediction models built on buckets using discretization based on binning and histograms lead to higher prediction coverage.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationAdvances in Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining - 14th Pacific-Asia Conference, PAKDD 2010, Proceedings
Pages71-80
Number of pages10
EditionPART 2
DOIs
StatePublished - 2010
Event14th Pacific-Asia Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, PAKDD 2010 - Hyderabad, India
Duration: Jun 21 2010Jun 24 2010

Publication series

NameLecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)
NumberPART 2
Volume6119 LNAI
ISSN (Print)0302-9743
ISSN (Electronic)1611-3349

Other

Other14th Pacific-Asia Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, PAKDD 2010
Country/TerritoryIndia
CityHyderabad
Period6/21/106/24/10

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