Predicting preschool screening referral rates from district demographic data

The ability of social, economic, and educational variables to predict screening referral rates among 398 school districts in a statewide preschool screening program was examined. First, salient demographic and educational variables were identified and reduced to five global factors by principal (common) factor analysis. Then, five factor scores and one additional variable (percentage of handicapped students) for each school district were evaluated as predictors of two screening outcomes. In Study 1 the screening outcome was membership in groups of screening programs with the lowest versus highest referral rates. In Study 2 the screening outcome was referral rates among the screening programs. The results from both studies indicated that screening referral rates were not related to broad social, economic, and educational factors in any simple way. Alternative explanations are discussed, as well as implications for research on factors that may influence the screening of preschoolers.