Probabilistic microgrid energy management with interval predictions

In this paper, we consider a probabilistic microgrid dispatch problem where the predictions of the load and the Renewable Energy Source (RES) generation are given in the form of intervals. A hybrid method combining scenario-selected optimization and reserve strategy using the Model Predictive Control (MPC) framework is proposed. Specifically, first of all, an appropriate scenario is selected by the optimizer at each optimization stage, and then the optimal scheduling and reservation of system capacity are determined based on the selected scenario and possible variations in the future as provided by the predictors. In addition, a new reserve strategy is introduced to adaptively maintain system reliability and respond to variations in the hierarchical microgrid control. Simulations are conducted to compare our proposed method with the existing robust method and the deterministic dispatch with perfect information. Results show that our proposed method significantly improves the system efficiency while maintaining system reliability.