Prediction of subsequent leukemia-free survival (LFS) and chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) in adults with acute leukemia who survived at least 1 year after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation is difficult. We analyzed 3339 patients with acute myeloid leukemia and 1434 patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia who received myeloablative conditioning and related or unrelated stem cells from 1990 to 2005. Most clinical factors predictive of LFS in 1-year survivors were no longer significant after 2 or more years. For acute myeloid leukemia, only disease status (beyond first complete remission) remained a significant adverse risk factor for LFS 2 or more years after transplantation. For lymphoblastic leukemia, only extensive chronic GVHD remained a significant adverse predictor of LFS in the second and subsequent years. For patients surviving for 1 year without disease relapse or extensive chronic GVHD, the risk of developing extensive chronic GVHD in the next year was 4% if no risk factors were present and higher if noncyclosporine-based GVHD prophylaxis, an HLA-mismatched donor, or peripheral blood stem cells were used. Estimates for subsequent LFS and extensive chronic GVHD can be derived for individual patients or populations using an online calculator (http://www.cibmtr.org/LeukemiaCalculators). This prognostic information is more relevant for survivors than estimates provided before transplantation.
Bibliographical noteFunding Information:
Financial Disclosure: The CIBMTR is supported by Public Health Service Grant/Cooperative Agreement U24-CA76518 from the National Cancer Institute (NCI), the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (NHLBI), and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases ; a Grant/Cooperative Agreement 5U01HL069294 from NHLBI and NCI; a contract HHSH234200637015C with Health Resources and Services Administration; 2 grants ( N00014-06-1-0704 and N00014-08-1-0058 ) from the Office of Naval Research ; and grants from Allos, Inc. ; Amgen, Inc. ; Angioblast ; anonymous donation to the Medical College of Wisconsin; Ariad; Be the Match Foundation; Blue Cross and Blue Shield Association; Buchanan Family Foundation; CaridianBCT; Celgene Corporation; CellGenix, GmbH; Children's Leukemia Research Association; Fresenius-Biotech North America, Inc.; Gamida Cell Teva Joint Venture Ltd.; Genentech, Inc.; Genzyme Corporation; GlaxoSmithKline; HistoGenetics, Inc.; Kiadis Pharma; The Leukemia & Lymphoma Society; The Medical College of Wisconsin; Merck & Co, Inc.; Millennium: The Takeda Oncology Co.; Milliman USA, Inc.; Miltenyi Biotec, Inc.; National Marrow Donor Program; Optum Healthcare Solutions, Inc.; Osiris Therapeutics, Inc.; Otsuka America Pharmaceutical, Inc.; RemedyMD; Sanofi; Seattle Genetics; Sigma-Tau Pharmaceuticals; Soligenix, Inc.; StemCyte, A Global Cord Blood Therapeutics Co.; Stemsoft Software, Inc.; Swedish Orphan Biovitrum; Tarix Pharmaceuticals; Teva Neuroscience, Inc.; THERAKOS, Inc.; and Wellpoint, Inc. The views expressed in this article do not reflect the official policy or position of the National Institutes of Health, the Department of the Navy, the Department of Defense, or any other agency of the US Government.
- Chronic graft-versus-host disease
- Landmark analysis
- Leukemia-free survival