Refining Prediction of Atrial Fibrillation-Related Stroke Using the P2-CHA2DS2-VASc Score: ARIC and MESA

Ankit Maheshwari, Faye Norby, Nicholas S. Roetker, Elsayed Z. Soliman, Ryan Koene, Mary R. Rooney, Wesley T. O'Neal, Amil M. Shah, Brian L. Claggett, Scott D. Solomon, Alvaro Alonso, Rebecca F. Gottesman, Susan R. Heckbert, Lin Yee Chen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

24 Scopus citations


Background: In people with atrial fibrillation (AF), periods of sinus rhythm present an opportunity to detect prothrombotic atrial remodeling through measurement of P-wave indices (PWIs) - prolonged P-wave duration, abnormal P-wave axis, advanced interatrial block, and abnormal P-wave terminal force in lead V1. We hypothesized that the addition of PWIs to the CHA2DS2-VASc score would improve its ability to predict AF-related ischemic stroke. Methods: We included 2229 participants from the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) and 700 participants from MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) with incident AF who were not on anticoagulants within 1 year of AF diagnosis. PWIs were obtained from study visit ECGs before development of AF. AF was ascertained using study visit ECGs and hospital records. Ischemic stroke cases were based on physician adjudication of hospital records. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios and 95% CIs of PWIs for ischemic stroke. Improvement in 1-year stroke prediction was assessed by C-statistic, categorical net reclassification improvement, and relative integrated discrimination improvement. Results: Abnormal P-wave axis was the only PWI associated with increased ischemic stroke risk (hazard ratio, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.33-2.55) independent of CHA2DS2-VASc variables, and that resulted in meaningful improvement in stroke prediction. The β estimate was approximately twice that of the CHA2DS2-VASc variables, and thus abnormal P-wave axis was assigned 2 points to create the P2-CHA2DS2-VASc score. This improved the C-statistic (95% CI) from 0.60 (0.51-0.69) to 0.67 (0.60-0.75) in ARIC and 0.68 (0.52-0.84) to 0.75 (0.60-0.91) in MESA (validation cohort). In ARIC and MESA, the categorical net reclassification improvements (95% CI) were 0.25 (0.13-0.39) and 0.51 (0.18-0.86), respectively, and the relative integrated discrimination improvement (95% CI) were 1.19 (0.96-1.44) and 0.82 (0.36-1.39), respectively. Conclusions: Abnormal P-wave axis - an ECG correlate of left atrial abnormality - improves ischemic stroke prediction in AF. Compared with CHA2DS2-VASc, the P2-CHA2DS2-VASc is a better prediction tool for AF-related ischemic stroke.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)180-191
Number of pages12
Issue number2
StatePublished - Jan 8 2019

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
We thank the other investigators, staff, and participants of the MESA and the ARIC study for their valuable contributions. A full list of participating MESA investigators and institutions can be found at Dr Alonso is supported by an American Heart Association grant 16EIA26410001. Dr Chen is supported by grants R01HL126637 and R01HL141288. Dr Rooney is supported by National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute grant T32HL007779.

Funding Information:
The ARIC study is carried out as a collaborative study supported by National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute contracts (HHSN268201100005C, HH-SN268201100006C, HHSN268201100007C, HHSN268201100008C, HH-SN268201100009C, HHSN268201100010C, HHSN268201100011C, and HHSN268201100012C). The research in MESA was supported by contracts HHSN268201500003I, N01-HC-95159, N01-HC-95160, N01-HC-95161, N01-HC-95162, N01-HC-95163, N01-HC-95164, N01-HC-95165, N01-HC-95166, N01-HC-95167, N01-HC-95168, and N01-HC-95169 and grant HL127659 from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, as well as by grants UL1-TR-000040, UL1-TR-001079, and UL1-TR-001420 from the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.


  • atrial fibrillation
  • stroke


Dive into the research topics of 'Refining Prediction of Atrial Fibrillation-Related Stroke Using the P<sub>2</sub>-CHA<sub>2</sub>DS<sub>2</sub>-VASc Score: ARIC and MESA'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this