Simulation model of within-herd transmission of bovine tuberculosis in Argentine dairy herds

Andres M. Perez, Michael P. Ward, Armando Charmandarián, Viviana Ritacco

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

35 Scopus citations

Abstract

Transmission of bovine tuberculosis was quantified in three dairy herds located in south Santa Fe Province, Argentina. Using estimates of Mycobacterium bovis transmission (β) and a Reed-Frost simulation model, the prevalence of tuberculosis infection in the study herds over time was investigated. The Reed-Frost model was modified by incorporating randomness in both β and the incubation period (α) of M. bovis. The mean estimated herd β was 2.2 infective contacts per year and did not differ significantly between the study herds. Modeling α as Poisson distributed (mean 24 months) best fit the observed prevalences. Infection was predicted by the model either to spread quickly (<10 years) within a herd and reach a high prevalence (>50%), or to persist at a low prevalence (<5-10%). The model was robust, predictions were realistic and the mean β estimated was consistent with previous studies of bovine tuberculosis.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)361-372
Number of pages12
JournalPreventive Veterinary Medicine
Volume54
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 30 2002

Keywords

  • Argentina
  • Bovine tuberculosis
  • Dairy herds
  • Epidemiology
  • Simulation modeling
  • Transmission

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