The impact of near-miss events on betting behavior: An examination of casino rapid roulette play

James A. Sundali, Amanda H. Safford, Rachel Croson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

8 Scopus citations

Abstract

We examine how almost winning in roulette affects subsequent betting behavior. Our main finding is heterogeneity in gambler behavior with some gamblers less likely to bet on numbers that were near misses on the prior spin and other gamblers more likely to bet on near miss numbers. Using a unique data set from the game rapid roulette, we model the likelihood of a gambler betting on a near miss number while controlling for the favorite number bias and the likelihood of a number being a near miss. We also find no evidence that near misses in roulette leads to gamblers extending the time spent gambling or to the placing of more bets.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)768-778
Number of pages11
JournalJudgment and Decision Making
Volume7
Issue number6
StatePublished - Nov 1 2012
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Casino betting
  • Field data
  • Gambler's fallacy
  • Judgment and decision making
  • Roulette

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