The Negative Binomial Distribution as a Renewal Model for the Recurrence of Large Earthquakes

Alejandro Tejedor; Javier B. Gómez; Amalio F. Pacheco

doi:10.1007/s00024-014-0871-2

The Negative Binomial Distribution as a Renewal Model for the Recurrence of Large Earthquakes

Alejandro Tejedor, Javier B. Gómez, Amalio F. Pacheco

St. Anthony Falls Laboratory

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Abstract

The negative binomial distribution is presented as the waiting time distribution of a cyclic Markov model. This cycle simulates the seismic cycle in a fault. As an example, this model, which can describe recurrences with aperiodicities between 0 and 0.5, is used to fit the Parkfield, California earthquake series in the San Andreas Fault. The performance of the model in the forecasting is expressed in terms of error diagrams and compared with other recurrence models from literature.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	23-31
Number of pages	9
Journal	Pure and Applied Geophysics
Volume	172
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-014-0871-2
State	Published - Jan 2014

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Publisher Copyright:
© 2014, Springer Basel.

Keywords

Negative binomial distribution
earthquake forecasting
renewal process
seismic cycle

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The Negative Binomial Distribution as a Renewal Model for the Recurrence of Large Earthquakes

Abstract

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Keywords

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