Abstract
Among 11, 579 men ages 40-59 without evidence of cardiovascular disease, 2,289 died in 15 years, 618 from coronary heart disease. The 15 cohorts in seven countries (four regions) differed in all-causes death rate, mainly reflecting great differences in coronary mortality. Among characteristics of entry, only mean blood pressure helped to explain cohort differences in all-causes death rate. Three-quarters of the variance in coronary death rate was accounted for by differences in mean serum cholesterol and blood pressure of the cohorts. The mortality risk for individuals was examined in each of the regions. For coronary death, age, serum cholesterol, blood pressure, and smoking were highly significant in all regions except Japan, where coronary deaths were too few for evaluation. Relative weight was not significant anywhere. Physical activity was significant only in southern Europe, where differences are associated with socioeconomic status. For all-causes death, age and blood pressure were highly significant risk factors in all regions as was smoking habit, except in Japan. Relative body weight tended to be a negative risk factor everywhere, significantly so in southern Europe. Expectations for coronary death from the experience in the United States and northern Europe greatly exceeded observed deaths in southern Europe for men of their age, serum cholesterol, blood pressure, smoking habits, physical activity, and relative weight. The reverse, prediction of coronary deaths in America and in northern Europe from the southern European experience, greatly underestimated the deaths observed. Similar cross-predictions between the United States and northern Europe were good for all causes deaths, excellent for coronary deaths. Analysis of time trends in relationships of mortality to entry characteristics showed continued importance of age, blood pressure, and smoking and a tendency for the importance of cholesterol to fall in the last 5 years of follow-up.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 141-154 |
| Number of pages | 14 |
| Journal | Preventive medicine |
| Volume | 13 |
| Issue number | 2 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Mar 1984 |
Bibliographical note
Funding Information:‘Laboratory of Physiological Hygiene, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Stadium Gate 27, 611 Beacon Street, S.E., Minneapolis, Minnesota 55455 2Laboratoty of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Istituto Superiore di Sanita, Rome, Italy 3Department of Cardiology, Evangelismos Hospital, Athens, Greece 4Department of Internal Medicine, Belgrade University Medical School, Belgrade, Yugoslavia 51nstitute of Public Health of Croatia, Zagreb, Yugoslavia 6Department of Medicine, Accident Hospital, Athens, Greece ‘Istituto di Scienza dell’dlimentazione, University of Perugia, Perugia, Italy %ardiovascular Diseases Unit, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland 90ffice of the President, University of Kurume, Kurume, Japan lODepartment of Internal Medicine, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Yugoslavia “Via Savoia 80, Rome, Italy t2Research Department, Finnish Heart Association, Helsinki, Finland 131nstituteo f Social Medicine, University of Leiden, Leiden, The Netherlands 141nstituteo f Cardiovascular Diseases, Kurume University, Kurume, Japan
