TY - JOUR
T1 - The transmissibility and control of pandemic influenza a (H1N1) virus
AU - Yang, Yang
AU - Sugimoto, Jonathan D.
AU - Elizabeth Halloran, M.
AU - Basta, Nicole E.
AU - Chao, Dennis L.
AU - Matrajt, Laura
AU - Potter, Gail
AU - Kenah, Eben
AU - Longini, Ira M.
PY - 2009/10/30
Y1 - 2009/10/30
N2 - Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 (pandemic H1N1) is spreading throughout the planet. It has become the dominant strain in the Southern Hemisphere, where the influenza season has now ended. Here, on the basis of reported case clusters in the United States, we estimated the household secondary attack rate for pandemic H1N1 to be 27.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) from 12.2% to 50.5%]. From a school outbreak, we estimated that a typical schoolchild infects 2.4 (95% Cl from 1.8 to 3.2) other children within the school. We estimated the basic reproductive number, R0, to range from 1.3 to 1.7 and the generation interval to range from 2.6 to 3.2 days. We used a simulation model to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination strategies in the United States for fall 2009. If a vaccine were-available soon enough, vaccination of children, followed by adults, reaching 70% overall coverage, in addition to high-risk and essential workforce groups, could mitigate a severe epidemic.
AB - Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 (pandemic H1N1) is spreading throughout the planet. It has become the dominant strain in the Southern Hemisphere, where the influenza season has now ended. Here, on the basis of reported case clusters in the United States, we estimated the household secondary attack rate for pandemic H1N1 to be 27.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) from 12.2% to 50.5%]. From a school outbreak, we estimated that a typical schoolchild infects 2.4 (95% Cl from 1.8 to 3.2) other children within the school. We estimated the basic reproductive number, R0, to range from 1.3 to 1.7 and the generation interval to range from 2.6 to 3.2 days. We used a simulation model to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination strategies in the United States for fall 2009. If a vaccine were-available soon enough, vaccination of children, followed by adults, reaching 70% overall coverage, in addition to high-risk and essential workforce groups, could mitigate a severe epidemic.
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U2 - 10.1126/science.1177373
DO - 10.1126/science.1177373
M3 - Article
C2 - 19745114
AN - SCOPUS:70350610314
SN - 0036-8075
VL - 326
SP - 729
EP - 733
JO - Science
JF - Science
IS - 5953
ER -