Uncertainty in urban hydrologic modeling

Uncertainty is pervasive in hydrologic modeling. Uncertainty is present in the formulation of the physical situation to be modeled, in the form of the model to be used, in the boundary conditions stipulated, in the parameters required by the model, in the procedures used to estimate model parameters, in the input functions required to drive the model (rainfall, etc.), and in the data used to verify the model. This paper addresses these various sources of uncertainty. An example is given based on the estimation of flood peaks.