Validation of a Risk Score for Dying Within 1 Year of an Admission for Heart Failure

Background: Development of heart failure greatly reduces life expectancy. Accurate estimates of the risk of dying are needed in clinical practice and for risk adjustment in observational studies. A relatively simple risk score has been developed to determine the risk of dying within 1-year of an admission for heart failure. We wanted to evaluate the risk score's predictive validity. Methods and Results: Data were abstracted from the electronic medical records of 769 patients admitted to the Minneapolis Veterans Administration medical center with a primary diagnosis of heart failure. Mortality within 1 year of admission was 25%. The c-index for the risk score was 0.71 (95% confidence interval 0.67-0.76). Similar to the original derivation cohort, mortality in risk score groups was 7% for a score lower than 60 (n = 44), 14% for 61 to 90 (n = 246), 26% for 91 to 120 (n = 222), 51% for 121 to 150 (n = 106), and 50% for scores greater than 150 (n = 8). Conclusion: A previously developed risk score for 1-year mortality after an admission for heart failure provided a moderate degree of discrimination in a validation cohort from a different setting. Mortality in risk score groups was consistent with the original patient cohort. These results support the validity of the risk score and its application to a different patient population.