A local roundwood supply and price assessment model

Models to analyze subregional forest products markets are needed as policy tools. This paper develops a model that can be used for such analyses. It is a simulation model that predicts the economic stock supply of primary products on the basis of estimates of product demands and production costs. Two market levels are considered: one for primary wood products and one for stumpage. The model recognizes quantity and price determinants for roundwood delivered f.o.b. the mill. These determinants include differential harvesting and transportation costs, complementary-competitive relationships between primary products, and landowner response to price. Thus, what is sometimes called "economic timber supply' by practitioners is determined. Components of the model are described and an application is presented. -Authors