Climate change will impact nature-based tourism communities by altering weather patterns and influencing the supply of outdoor recreation resources. Visitors to these such destinations respond through recreation substitution, altering when, where, and how they participate in outdoor pursuits. Understanding predictors of recreation substitution is important for destinations considering how to best adapt to climate change. Using visitor-intercept data (n = 1,398) we explored different visitor segments' intent to utilize recreation substitution in response to changing environmental conditions. Visitor segments characterized by low trip anticipation or a long travel distance were most likely to cancel their trips or travel elsewhere in pursuit of ideal recreation conditions. Spatial substitution was lower among visitors with higher degrees of destination loyalty, highlighting the value of communication strategies that foster connections to place. Targeted marketing to retain visitor segments likely to cancel trips, may minimize negative impacts of climate change on travel behavior.
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- Destination loyalty
- cluster analysis
- travel distance
- trip anticipation