TY - JOUR
T1 - Modelling the wind-borne spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus between farms
AU - Ssematimba, Amos
AU - Hagenaars, Thomas J.
AU - de Jong, Mart C.M.
PY - 2012/2/14
Y1 - 2012/2/14
N2 - A quantitative understanding of the spread of contaminated farm dust between locations is a prerequisite for obtaining much-needed insight into one of the possible mechanisms of disease spread between farms. Here, we develop a model to calculate the quantity of contaminated farm-dust particles deposited at various locations downwind of a source farm and apply the model to assess the possible contribution of the wind-borne route to the transmission of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza virus (HPAI) during the 2003 epidemic in the Netherlands. The model is obtained from a Gaussian Plume Model by incorporating the dust deposition process, pathogen decay, and a model for the infection process on exposed farms. Using poultry- and avian influenza-specific parameter values we calculate the distance-dependent probability of between-farm transmission by this route. A comparison between the transmission risk pattern predicted by the model and the pattern observed during the 2003 epidemic reveals that the wind-borne route alone is insufficient to explain the observations although it could contribute substantially to the spread over short distance ranges, for example, explaining 24% of the transmission over distances up to 25 km.
AB - A quantitative understanding of the spread of contaminated farm dust between locations is a prerequisite for obtaining much-needed insight into one of the possible mechanisms of disease spread between farms. Here, we develop a model to calculate the quantity of contaminated farm-dust particles deposited at various locations downwind of a source farm and apply the model to assess the possible contribution of the wind-borne route to the transmission of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza virus (HPAI) during the 2003 epidemic in the Netherlands. The model is obtained from a Gaussian Plume Model by incorporating the dust deposition process, pathogen decay, and a model for the infection process on exposed farms. Using poultry- and avian influenza-specific parameter values we calculate the distance-dependent probability of between-farm transmission by this route. A comparison between the transmission risk pattern predicted by the model and the pattern observed during the 2003 epidemic reveals that the wind-borne route alone is insufficient to explain the observations although it could contribute substantially to the spread over short distance ranges, for example, explaining 24% of the transmission over distances up to 25 km.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84856916274&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84856916274&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1371/journal.pone.0031114
DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0031114
M3 - Article
C2 - 22348042
AN - SCOPUS:84856916274
SN - 1932-6203
VL - 7
JO - PloS one
JF - PloS one
IS - 2
M1 - e31114
ER -