Mortality of Indianmeal moth (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) populations under fluctuating low temperatures: Model development and validation

A model for predicting mortality of Indianmeal moth larvae [Plodia interpunctella (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae)] under fluctuating low-temperature conditions was developed. The time and temperature combinations required to achieve 100% mortality of field-collected, cold-acclimated P. interpunctella larvae obtained from laboratory mortality experiments were used to develop the mortality model. Accumulation of mortality rate over time was called the cumulative lethality index (CLI). Complete mortality of insect populations would occur when CLI equals 1. Observed mortality of field-collected, cold-acclimated P. interpunctella larvae in five 76.2-T (3,000-bu) shelled corn bins located in Rosemount, MN, during the winters of 2003-2004 and 2004-2005 were used to validate the CLI model (i.e., mortality model). Excellent agreement between predicted and measured time to 100% larval mortality was observed. The CLI model would be useful for developing low-temperature aeration management strategies for controlling overwintering P. interpunctella in grain bins. In addition, this model will be useful when determining if additional control measures will be required as a result of above-seasonal ambient temperatures.