Prognostic Importance of Temporal Changes in Resting Heart Rate in Heart Failure and Preserved Ejection Fraction: From the TOPCAT Study

Objectives The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between baseline heart rate (HR), change in HR from a preceding visit, and time-updated HR with subsequent outcomes in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) in the TOPCAT (Treatment of Preserved Cardiac Function Heart Failure With an Aldosterone Antagonist) trial. Background Higher resting HR and increase in HR over time in patients with heart failure are associated with adverse outcomes. Whether these relationships between HR and prognosis are also observed in patients with HFpEF requires further assessment. Methods In 1,767 patients enrolled in the TOPCAT trial from the Americas, the associations between baseline resting HR and change in HR from the preceding visit and clinical outcomes were examined using Cox proportional hazards models, along with the association between HR at each visit and outcome. Results Both baseline HR (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.08; 95% confidence interval: 1.04 to 1.12) and change in HR from the preceding visit (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.09; 95% confidence interval: 1.05 to 1.14; p < 0.001 per 5 beats/min higher HR), after adjusting for covariates, were associated with a higher risk for the primary endpoint of cardiovascular death, hospitalization for HF, or aborted cardiac arrest. Time-updated resting HR at each visit was also associated with risk (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.11; 95% confidence interval: 1.07 to 1.15; p < 0.001 per 5 beats/min higher HR). Furthermore, a rise in resting HR of approximately 10 beats/min, beginning approximately 10 days prior to the primary endpoint, was observed. Conclusions Baseline resting HR and change in HR over time predict outcomes in patients with HFpEF, as does time-updated HR during follow-up. These data suggest that frequent outpatient monitoring of HR, possibly with remote technologies, may identify patients with HFpEF who may be at increased risk for rehospitalization or death.